Mercer Times

With the November 5 general election approaching, political polls are a common sight, highlighting tight races for the presidency and Congress. Harrison Lavelle, a student at The College of New Jersey (TCNJ), is deeply involved in analyzing these numbers. Lavelle, majoring in political science and international studies, co-founded Split Ticket, an election analysis website launched in 2021 with partners he met through an online election community.

Split Ticket provides a unique model of political forecasting by combining original tracking polls with extensive research into the political geography of various races. It also incorporates data from other polling sources to offer predictions on candidates' chances of winning and parties' prospects for controlling Congress.

"Our main goal from the beginning was to give people the data with nonpartisan analysis," Lavelle states. "We want to give better insight of where the election actually stands, free from pundit narratives."

Lavelle emphasizes that Split Ticket's approach differs from others by using aggregates that consider factors such as poll age, quality, population, and sample size.

The site has gained attention this election season by publishing weekly updates on key races and contributing analyses to prominent publications like The New York Times. Notably, it featured an interactive game in Politico challenging readers to manage campaign resources effectively. Some congressional candidates have even referenced Split Ticket's polling results in their campaigns.

"It’s been cool to see the positive reception of the site," Lavelle remarks. "I’m happy that people have received it so well."